For more than a decade, one of the easiest investment decisions was also one of the most profitable: own the United States, particularly its largest technology companies, and allow American exceptionalism to do the rest. The combination of deep capital markets, extraordinary companies, a strong entrepreneurial ecosystem and ultimately the artificial-intelligence boom made the US […]
Category: Markets
The central market is whether the world that produced the last forty years of portfolio construction still exists. The answer, increasingly, is: only partially. Modern mercantilism, AI infrastructure, fiscal pressure, war risk, and the re-pricing of national security are becoming market forces in their own right. Bridgewater has described the current moment as two overlapping […]
1. The World in 2026: A New Economic Regime Two powerful forces are reshaping the global economy at the same time. The first is the return of the state as a central economic actor. Governments are increasingly willing to intervene to secure supply chains, protect strategic industries, and strengthen national economic power. The second is […]
This year of market buoyancy is making investors uneasy. It isn’t only because prices are rising—it’s because they often rise faster than conviction. When central bankers express discomfort, when seasoned macro thinkers warn of bubble dynamics, and when geopolitics increasingly weaponizes currencies and capital flows, investors feel the irresistible urge to respond. But as Buffett reminds […]
Staying the Course Amidst Noise The financial world is entering yet another phase of turbulence. The headlines of this quarter revolve around three major forces: uncertainty around the US dollar, the escalation of new global conflicts, and the relentless march of artificial intelligence. Each has the potential to unsettle markets, but none should deter investors […]
Contrarian investing, valuation
For our last yearly review, we look at insightful perspectives from three reference investors: a provocative contrarian, a global macro and a value investor: Searching for Value Amidst High Asset Prices The provocative contrarian Marc Faber, in his Gloom Boom Doom report, raises critical questions about the sustainability of current asset valuations. He highlights a growing dichotomy […]
Market sentiment Looking ahead , the global economic outlook points to slower growth. While consumer spending is expected to remain positive, albeit at a slower pace than last year, some benchmark investors are showing signs of caution. For example, Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position will probably reach $200 billion by the end of the current quarter, […]
At the start of this year, we review W. Buffett’s latest letter to his shareholders, the market situation in the USA, China and other geographies, and conclude with a few practical considerations. W. Buffett’s principles In his letter to Berkshire investors for the 2023 financial year, W. Buffett recalls his main investment principles following the […]
For this final update of the year, we take a look at the risks from a global macro perspective, a more detailed evaluation at the currency and equity situation in Asia, and finish with some thoughts on possible entry points for self-made and serious equity investors. Risks and caution in 2024 Will 2024 offer a […]
Guide Finances 