The central market is whether the world that produced the last forty years of portfolio construction still exists. The answer, increasingly, is: only partially. Modern mercantilism, AI infrastructure, fiscal pressure, war risk, and the re-pricing of national security are becoming market forces in their own right. Bridgewater has described the current moment as two overlapping […]
Author: serumbach
1. The World in 2026: A New Economic Regime Two powerful forces are reshaping the global economy at the same time. The first is the return of the state as a central economic actor. Governments are increasingly willing to intervene to secure supply chains, protect strategic industries, and strengthen national economic power. The second is […]
This year of market buoyancy is making investors uneasy. It isn’t only because prices are rising—it’s because they often rise faster than conviction. When central bankers express discomfort, when seasoned macro thinkers warn of bubble dynamics, and when geopolitics increasingly weaponizes currencies and capital flows, investors feel the irresistible urge to respond. But as Buffett reminds […]
Staying the Course Amidst Noise The financial world is entering yet another phase of turbulence. The headlines of this quarter revolve around three major forces: uncertainty around the US dollar, the escalation of new global conflicts, and the relentless march of artificial intelligence. Each has the potential to unsettle markets, but none should deter investors […]
Contrarian investing, valuation
For Swiss investors, considering the Vanguard model portfolio may be a good starting point to build a solid portfolio. Vanguard Approch on Asset Allocation Given today’s uncertain environment, it is crucial for investors to remain disciplined and avoid panic-driven decisions. Vanguard’s Model Portfolio provides a framework for long-term investment allocation, offering different risk profiles based […]
The first quarter of 2025 has been marked by significant geopolitical events and the extraordinary rise of Chinese AI, particularly with the emergence of DeepSeek. This update explores the implications of AI developments on personal asset allocation. DeepSeek Assessment The rapid advancement of AI has led to an increase in speculation and misinformation in the […]
Pour notre dernière revue annuelle, nous examinons les points de vue éclairés de trois investisseurs de référence : un contrarian provocateur, un global macro et un investisseur « value » : À la recherche de valeur dans un contexte de prix élevés des actifs Dans son rapport « Gloom Boom Doom », l’anticonformiste provocateur Marc […]
For our last yearly review, we look at insightful perspectives from three reference investors: a provocative contrarian, a global macro and a value investor: Searching for Value Amidst High Asset Prices The provocative contrarian Marc Faber, in his Gloom Boom Doom report, raises critical questions about the sustainability of current asset valuations. He highlights a growing dichotomy […]
Sur la base d’une approche valeur des devises et des marchés actions on privilégiera les actions asiatiques (hors Japon), le Japon ainsi que le Royaume-Uni pour ce trimestre.
Guide Finances 